US Open Tennis Men's 2021 model predictions and picks
We've run the numbers for the 2021 Men's US Open tournament and it's no surprise that Djokovic is on top, but is he a good bet? Before we answer that, here is the full list of predicted win probabilities which are generated by simulating the tournament draw through our RatingTennis model 100,000 times.
The men's tournament, even with the absence of Nadal and Federer is stacked at the top with our numbers saying that 80% of the time, the winner will come from our top 5 players.
Our picks for the US Open:
LAY Alexander Zverev at 8.4
BACK Andrey Rublev at 70.0
LAY Stefanos Tsitsipas at 17.0
BACK Matteo Berrettini at 65.0
The world #1 is the dominant favourite with our simulations giving him a 40% chance to win. Not only does he hold a significant skill advantage over his competitors but will enjoy a soft draw as an added perk of coming into the tournament seeded #1. He probably won't face a significant threat till the Quarter-Finals where he may come up against Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini. Although he's dropped his last two matches at the Olympics, we can almost forgive him for that as there's a question mark over how seriously he took the Olympics compared to other tournaments, especially grand slams. In fact our model suggests that Djokovic outperforms in grand slams compared to regular tour events.
Is he a bet though? Probably not. His odds are too short at with the Betfair price currently at 1.85. However, we also wouldn't want to bet against him as qualitatively, he has shown that he thrives in grand slam conditions.
Medvedev has had a stunning 2021 hard court campaign having only dropped 2 matches thus far. He will enter the US Open as seed #2 and will be the biggest threat to Djokovic winning all the 2021 majors. The road to the semi-finals will be pretty easy for the Russian but once he gets there, he will likely face Rublev or Tsitsipas which has never been an easy task for him. In fact the last match he lost was to his fellow Russian in a 3 setter in Cincinatti.
We're going to steer away from Medvedev as a bet. Betfair's odds of 5.6 are too short for the world #2.
Probably the player that is in the best form leading up to the US Open. He hasn't dropped a match since Wimbledon and is coming into this having just won the Cincinatti Open and a gold medal at the Olympics. He is rightfully the third favourite on the bookies. However, the one thing we know about Zverev is that he can be wildly inconsistent, when he's hot he's hot, but when he's cold which we saw at the beginning of the year, he is ice cold. And despite his good form recently, we think he's going to struggle at the US Open. Only a couple of days ago his ex-girlfriend has come out with new allegations of domestic violence against him which will undoubtedly unsettle the German. It's hard for anyone, especially a 24-year old who's active on social media to block these out.
We're going to lay the German for the US Open due to this. Our purely quantitative model is makes his odds slightly longer than what Betfair has him at. In addition, we're going to qualitatively shave some points off of him given the circumstances above. Current odds on Betfair for a lay are 8.4.
The #2 Russian is one of those players that is always more than a chance when up against the top players but his name is never really thrown up in the serious contenders list to win a grand slam. He comes into the US Open with mixed form, his most recent big scalp being Medvedev. We rank him as the 6th best Hard Court player and if he's playing at his best, he could go far with the potential of producing an upset and winning it.
The markets have never really caught up to what a threat Rublev is. We rate him as a $11 shot and we see his odds of 70 to be too good to pass up.
The Greek will be coming into this seeded #3 and will be trying to put his early exit at Wimbledon to the back of his mind. Although Clay is his strongest surface, he doesn't fare too badly on Hard but has never really been able to string a long streak of wins on the surface.
We're going to receommend a Lay bet on the Greek at odds of 17.0, Although we give him a 5% chance to win this, we don't really rate his chances qualitatively with him never really having much success at the US Open and his form coming into it has been average at best.